Published 23.12.2024

Climate impacts critical to security of supply associated with all sectors of society

Climate change can have significant impacts on security of supply, especially in an open country reliant on foreign trade such as Finland. The best way to mitigate the security threats related to climate change is a well-designed, consistent and effective climate policy, write researchers Emma Hakala and Helmi Räisänen in a newly published situational picture report.

Jointly published by the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA) and the National Emergency Supply Agency (NESA), the new situational picture report examines the compounding and transition impacts of climate change on Finland’s security of supply. Compounding impacts emerge when climate factors compound with political, economic and cross-border phenomena. Transition impacts are related to the consequences of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

In Finland, preparedness for security threats is based on a cross-sectoral model of comprehensive security. While this model does, in principle, provide a good basis for preparing for climate change, its primary focus is on sudden and short-term disruptions and a differentiation between normal conditions and emergency conditions. However, according to the authors of the report, this perspective is not sufficient in all respects when preparing for the longer-term impacts of climate change.

“An integrated approach and cooperation between different public and private actors are key to preparing for the security of supply impacts of climate change,” say Hakala and Räisänen.

The situational picture report provides sector-specific information

The situational picture report focuses on six different sectors: food supply, energy supply, finance and the economy, logistics, manufacturing and health care. All of these sectors have climate impacts critical to security of supply associated with them.

For example, in the food supply sector, extreme weather phenomena such as droughts and floods have the potential to reduce crop yields outside Finland, which may result in a shortage of food imports. In the energy sector, the impacts are linked to the green transition: wind and solar energy, which are dependent on the weather, need to be supplemented with methods for balancing the consumption and production of electricity, in addition to which some energy technologies are subject to critical material and component dependencies. In the health care sector, climate change may increase medicine and equipment manufacturing disruptions, while extreme heat waves adversely affect people’s health.

“Climate change has major impacts on functions and infrastructure that are important for security of supply. The newly published situational picture report offers the first overview of the issue from the perspective of security of supply and provides more information on the impacts of climate change on society as a whole and on actors critical to security of supply in particular,” says Senior Preparedness Specialist Tapio Tourula, head of the NESA’s Climate and Space Team.

The situational picture report is based on previous literature and studies. It is part of the Climate Change and Finland’s Security of Supply (ILHU) research project carried out by the FIIA and funded by the NESA. The objective of the project is to examine the impacts of climate change and the mitigation thereof on Finland’s security of supply and measures for preparing for them. In future, the project will produce even more detailed information on impact chains related to food and energy production and critical materials, for example. This information will be used as the basis for developing concrete ways of taking the impacts of climate change into account in foresight and preparedness. The project was launched in autumn 2023 and will run until 2026.

Read the entire situational picture report through this link (in Finnish)